Until the emergence of the 'credit crunch' in the second half of 2007, this decade had seen a sustained period of economic growth which had contributed to an extremely buoyant shower products market.

But times can change quickly, the shower products market is highly influenced by consumer confidence in the economy and recent developments have served to increase the fiscal pressure on them. This is likely to come at the detriment of the shower industry.

While consumers are resilient and generally optimistic, the swathe of bad news and poor economic and company results from all over the world are generally weighing down people's confidence.

So how is all this affecting one of the key sectors within the bathroom market - showers?

The overall shower products market had an estimated value of £524m at manufacturer selling prices (msp) in 2007 - a 3% increase over the previous year. However, 2008 is expected to be significantly down from that at just £455m at msp, showing a drop of over 13%.

There's no doubt that the market is currently under severe pressure from a number of key factors. There is, of course, the deteriorating economic situation in the UK and the impact of the so-called 'credit-crunch', which is hitting the new housing and housemoving sectors in particular.

The issue seems to be judging how far and wide the impact of the credit-crunch can be felt and what will be the effect on the broader UK economy of the failure of several major banks. The increasing consensus is that this fiscal crisis will drive the UK into a recession, which in turn will be a negative influence on the shower and other consumer durable markets.

Think positive

But it's not all bad news. There are a number of positive underlying trends that are likely to provide support to the shower market, though in the short term their influence is likely to be limited. Nevertheless, let's take a look at some of them:

* On the economic front the government are taking steps to improve credit availability and, over time, this is likely to release funds for domestic improvements or house moves. Given the high levels of employment and relatively low underlying interest rates, this may underpin the domestic sector.

* A greater number of flats and smaller properties are still being built, which may increase the demand for showers as opposed to baths, but conversely may result in fewer bathroom facilities overall.

* Underlying consumer trends have led to more of us wanting our own distinct identity around the home, and this has led to an increased level of trading up among consumers, to better quality and more individual fittings.

* Consumers increasingly demand quality finishing and there is a distinct trend to GSI (Get Someone In), perhaps supporting the shift away from DIY, but in a way which could add value to the industry.

* There has been a shift towards consumers using the bathroom more as a room for indulgence and indeed the bathroom is becoming a multi-purpose room and a haven for private time. This shift in attitude has supported the 'wellness' trend that has developed in the bathroom market.

* The demand for 'inclusive' products may also have a positive impact on the industry, as by 2020, over half the adult population will be over 50 years old.

Other factors such as the media and the internet have had both a positive and negative impact on the shower sector, in the sense that consumers can shop around for cheaper products and internet suppliers can source them directly from low-cost sources. But consumers can also source cheaper upmarket and niche products, as the internet provides them with the knowledge and information to source from a wider range of options.

The press and TV media had previously positively influenced the shower and DIY market, with a greater focus on design and style throughout the home. However, the current media focus is more on cooking than DIY, leading to reduced interest in these sectors.

Increased levels of imports, particularly from low-cost countries continue to erode average market prices across this market and indeed across many others in the building and home improvement sectors.

With the above points in mind, it is expected that the shower market will perform poorly over the next two years, reflecting the economic impact in particular.

In fact, overall market deterioration of around 10% per annum, at current prices, is expected.

But what about the medium to longer term prospects for the shower market? Well, believe it or not, it's expected to experience modest growth. By 2012, the market value is estimated to be back over £500m at msp, which would represent a decrease of around 3% compared to 2007, excluding inflationary impacts.

More than £16bn is likely to be spent on the 2012 Olympic Games and infrastructure during the next four years. The shower market should be supported by the new build and RMI activity planned as a direct result of the successful Olympic bid. The Commonwealth Games in 2014 may also positively affect the market.

In the public housing sector there are major government plans to bring social housing up to 'decent' levels and this should have a positive impact on the shower market as well.

In the non-domestic sector there will continue to be large construction projects, many sponsored by the present Government, including for example the building schools for the future programme. These developments should offer some opportunity to shower product suppliers, while current Government policies are continued.

Growth opportunities

So where are the opportunities for growth? Shower enclosures, screens and trays have grown their share of the market in recent years and now account for only a fraction less than the shower controls sector at 45%.

All sectors have achieved reasonable growth during the past two years because new product development has lifted the average selling prices. So, for example, floating glass enclosures, hydrotherapy units, walk-in enclosures, curved screens, thicker glass, new synthetic materials as well as the trend to larger enclosures have all aided the expansion of the market.

Shower controls retain a major share of the market at 46%. The mixer and power shower sectors have experienced an increase in value throughout the last three to four years, largely due to product development and other added value features, which have generated higher average prices. In particular the power and digital shower products have added value to this sector. This trend may be threatened over the next year or so, but is likely to be re-established after that.

Shower control-related accessories, particularly the larger more sophisticated shower heads, are likely to grow in line with the change in role of showers from the purely functional to the all embracing experience of relaxation and well being. There is also likely to be an increasing demand for eco showers.

Seats, grab bars and duckboards are likely to be growth areas in line with the changing needs of older consumers combined with contemporary aesthetic tastes.

A more general trend towards contemporary styles and a clean and clear look to the bathroom, as well as to other parts of the home, has contributed to added value in the shower industry as suppliers look to provide higher value products with improved styling and more features. This opportunity looks set to continue as homes remain small and space remains at a premium.

There are plenty of other factors affecting the market, in particular factors outside of the market's control. For instance, any further changes in building regulations to support the use of thermostatic valves may also positively impact the shower control sector.

Equally, the increasing level of installation of high pressure water systems is likely to increase demand for products to suit, and improved temperature and flow control is likely to remain a key factor reflecting the greater environmental concerns levied at high power showers.

But there's only one conclusion that can be drawn in today's difficult market and that's that the shower products sector is likely to become very much more difficult over the next two years in particular. Higher value products are likely to come under pressure, while low-cost alternatives, perhaps imported from low-wage cost countries are likely to offer better opportunity.

In the medium term it is likely that fundamentally resilient and optimistic consumers alongside underlying consumer demand for greater individuality of products and materials around the home will give the market a stimulus to recovery.