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KBB Review Title

Trouble at the top
25 March 2009

Do you remember the good old days when this economic crisis and global recession was just a simple, fledgling credit crunch?

The flow of cash and availability of credit was causing plenty of headaches but major redundancies and collapsing companies weren't yet quite daily news. In the kitchen, bedroom and bathroom market the mantra for at least 12 months previously had been that the entry-level market is maintaining volumes but margins are dropping, the mid-market is really suffering as average customers look for more value but, thank god, the top end is doing really well.

Obviously the likes of MFI are going to fail but those with money will always have money won't they? Those with great products, great design and great service will always be ok won't they? Sound familiar?

Fast forward to 2009 and suddenly even those on high ground are watching the water levels rise rapidly and, slowly but surely, those companies that a year ago would've looked indestructible in terms of the buying power of its typical customers are now standing in soggy slippers.

Crabtree Kitchens, a very successful top end bespoke manufacturer for 25 years, went under last month as its sales just disappeared and the cash flow from hefty deposits with it.

Smallbone of Devizes and Mark Wilkinson Furniture were saved from the administrators of parent company Smallbone plc just last week and AGA, the brand that budgets forgot, has had its profits slashed by 50%.

These are just some of the unfortunately very public casualties of an underlying theme. There are plenty of other rumours floating around concerning top-end brands that are really struggling - I'm sure you've heard them as much as I have.

Top end businesses usually sell more niche products and that means lower volumes and more resource. Top end kitchen and bathroom retailers sell less but sell it for more. They rely on keeping cash flow with large deposits and if they're not coming in they're as vulnerable as everyone else.

So why is this happening? Crabtree have said that so many of its customers worked in the City that when banking collapsed it went with it. I'm sure this is a significant theme for everybody. It's interesting that this recession started with comparatively wealthy people being hit first. The initial images of this downturn weren't queues outside dole offices or factories clanging their gates shut, it was smart suited business-types handing over the keys to the Audi and walking from their shiny offices.

It's not just kitchens, bedrooms and bathrooms either, the other stalwart of the money-no-object consumer has also been decimated - cars. Last year I went to the Motor Show at ExCeL to have a look at the facilities we're using for our awards. The Platinum Suite where we'll be sitting in May was being used for the by-invitation-only viewings of supercars. Ferraris, Zondas, Bugattis, they were all sat there waiting for leering eyes.

Downstairs the queue of punters waiting to get in stretched up and down like Wembley on match day and it was hailed as the most successful show in the 100 years history of the event. Last week, the plug was pulled as the big car makers shrugged and pulled the empty lining out their pockets for all to see.

So if no one is immune, is there hope for anyone?

It's true that even well run companies can find themselves on the wrong side of a recession without much trouble - after all, no matter well you run your company you can't run your customers' or suppliers' businesses for them.

However, those top end companies that have great products, great service and all those things aren't necessarily the quickest to react to market conditions or take the time to see the writing on the wall for what may happen in times ahead.

Or, alternatively, they see the money rolling in when times are good and decide to spend it and borrow more on the assumption that it will always be that way in a bid to become bigger.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, at its core elements business isn't difficult. Buy stuff from one person and sell it to someone else for more. When you're making money make sure you save enough for when you're not. Be aware of the wider sector you're in and read between the lines to see what's around the corner. Don't rely on 80% of your business from 5% of your customers and just because you wouldn't have it in your house doesn't mean you shouldn't sell it if that's what your market wants.

But if it was that easy we wouldn't all be in this mess would we?

What do you think? Email Andrew