Position in 2008: 2
The long-term effects of the economic crisis on the kitchen, bedroom and bathroom industry will be governed by consumers' willingness to pay for what they want...
Well, what else could number one be? In the 2008 rundown of the issues affecting the industry, we had it at number two as, back then, a possible crisis was only a niggling fear.
It's an economic crisis, a credit crunch, a downturn, a slowdown and, as Jonathan Ross referred to it "the W word - recession".
All this swirling economic uncertainty has led to plenty of pictures of city boys with their heads in their hands, but for the rest of us who never really had to worry about their million-pound bonuses, thoughts are already beginning to turn to what happens next.
So what is the long-term future for the KBB industry once the dust has finally settled?
Whatever the specific economic anomalies that accelerated us into crisis, the truth is that they are simply the pin that burst the bubble. Consumer spending had spiralled to ludicrous levels as we collectively decided to ignore the fact that you probably shouldn't spend more than you ear
Credit became a commodity - something to sell, something you could manipulate to undercut your nearest rival. You could advertise it endlessly on TV and when you'd had enough of that, you could advertise services that consolidated all the different debts into one "easy manageable monthly payment".
Banks have been offering credit for as long as money has existed, but surely questions should have been asked when supermarkets, football clubs and Carol Vorderman were all getting in on the act?
Borrowing became the new saving. The idea that if you wanted something, you might actually save up the money to buy it, became so unfashionable that the number of credit cards you owned almost became a badge of honour.
This has all led to a situation that can be summed up with one simple fact: according to the latest figures, UK households are saving 40p for every £100 they earn. And that even includes pensions.
So while stock markets may be plummeting or rocketing by the day, perhaps the biggest long-term effect of this economic downturn is that consumers have had their collective faces slapped and they've been snapped out of the hypnotic state they've been in. This is, perhaps, the start of a real social change driven by economic reality.
By the time we get to the other side of this recession, are we all going to be feeling slightly embarrassed? This is nothing to do with consumer confidence, this is about consumer reality, and that is bound to make life harder for anyone trying to sell things for some time to come.
For major products, like cars, loft conversions, trip-of-a-lifetime holidays and, yes, kitchens, bedrooms and bathrooms, it means even those who have no job security worries might still put off purchases. Not because they're worried, but because they're suddenly conscious of how little they've saved, how much debt they're already in, or simply that it might be wise to save up the money before they buy.
Demand drives economics in developed countries like the UK, and that has undeniably dropped off. Yes, that reflects short-term uncertainty, but it doesn't mean that everyone is either being, or about to be, laid off. It reflects a level of self-assessment that may be the major ongoing trend affecting the KBB market.
Although people are fearful, there's also a collective sigh of relief that maybe they won't have to keep up with the Joneses like they used to.
Prosperity is relative, that's arguably what drove the debt culture that has defined the past 10 years. When everyone else seems to be buying anything they want, then why shouldn't you? No matter what you earn. What should have been luxury items became everyday items. Look at the rise in American side-by-side fridges, range cookers - even cooker hoods. I mean, it's incredibly clever, don't get me wrong, but how lazy do you have to be to have electric motors to open all the drawers in your kitchen?
So what does this mean in the long term to anyone selling kitchens, bedrooms and bathrooms?
Yes, it's a fundamental shift in consumer spending, but it's equally a shift in what consumers want, need and desire. At the moment, this is what ultimately pushes consumers to get into a home improvement project - most people don't need to get a new kitchen or bathroom, but they do really want and desire one.
And when money, credit, equity - call it what you will - is plentiful, then what you want, you can have tomorrow, as long as you pass an increasingly cursory credit check. There's no stigma to debt as everyone else has it.
So for several years, the KBB industry has naturally focused on what people want and desire - it's all been about aspiration, luxury, spoiling yourself, indulgence. But in the new world, what people need will have a much greater influence on purchasing - that steam oven is really nice, but do we need it?
Form follows function and function will be the key driver for KBB consumers. Crucially, this doesn't mean that people will necessarily spend less. It just means that what they spend will have to be justified, thought through and dictated by need. If anything, consumers will probably end up spending more on a project, but they will leave it longer between projects and will spend enough to make it last a long time.
While need will be the new principal consumer driver in this market, there may be other offshoots. The buy-it-now-pay-later, bling culture never really sat well with the other defining trend of the decade - concern for the environment.
But who really knows? What is certain is that we all need to make it through the short-term intact. A starting gun will fire when the immediate crisis is over and thinking now about how to come out of the blocks - both as suppliers and consumers - may get us a head start.
