Peaks and troughs: The business of busy-ness

Retailers used to be able to rely on the waves of business to ebb and flow at specific times like clockwork, but these days, the peaks and troughs throughout the year seem to be much more erratic. But why have busy periods become so unpredictable?

by George Dean06 December, 2024

Historically, there was a clear pattern of trading: Christmas rush, easter slow down, a build up to summer, then flat again until children were back in school – rinse and repeat,” explains Michael Lloyd, managing director of Wetrooms Online.

However, Lloyd, like many others, believes the tried and tested formula that KBB retailers could previously set their watches by is no longer dependable at all. He pins the blame on Covid, saying: “Since then, the way clients approach us and interact with showrooms has changed. For me, there is no clear pattern.”

John Lindsey, director at Audus Kitchens, also believes that Covid has played a part in the lack of predictable reliability, saying: “We still see some seasonality in kitchen retail, but the peaks and troughs have gone haywire since the strange old Covid times.

“That obviously screwed-up any predictability and since then the social and economic uncertainty, and trying to return to some sort of normality still, has meant the peaks and troughs are all over the place.”

Julian Stammers, manager at J S Designs & Interiors, agrees, saying: “We used to say that December and January would be quiet, but now that has been replaced by July and August as people seem to want their summer holidays.”

Like Lindsey, he agrees that economic factors seem to have made it worse, but thinks that this year was particularly uncertain. He pins the blame for this erratic consumer behaviour on “concern with the new government coming into power and worry over commitment to buy high-value purchases”.

So, is it the case that these business spikes and lulls simply no longer exist, or have they just shifted to somewhere else in the calendar? 

Belinda Dangerfield, design director at Qudaus Living, agrees that things aren’t what they used to be, and has a theory as to why…

“Seasonal patterns in the kitchen industry have shifted noticeably,” she observes, “with the rise of e-commerce, new peaks like Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Amazon Prime Day have changed when clients make purchases, often driving appliance and accessory sales into unexpected times of the year.” 

Dangerfield also believes that a shift in the rhythm of the market might be linked to the actual availability of installers, saying: “demand for builders and skilled tradespeople has created long lead times, leading clients to place orders and start planning outside of typical seasonal patterns”. 

Meanwhile, although acknowledging that the peaks and troughs have certainly changed, Tina Riley, managing director at Modern Homes, believes the shift is even more noticeable in some areas of the KBB industry than others. 

She comments: “We find that bathroom enquiries and sales are steady all year round. Kitchen sales can tend to spike, but usually when the large ‘sheds’ are bombarding consumers with TV sale adverts.”

Looking to explain this imbalance, she theorises: “Kitchen projects tend to need more ‘home planning’ around when it’s more convenient to have the kitchen out of action for a few weeks, such as by trying to avoid children’s holiday times.

“Whereas with bathrooms, because most properties have more than one bathroom, it’s much easier to negotiate the timing of the install.”

Paramount planning

So if most retailers think the traditional January booms and Springtime slows are dead and gone, how can they properly prepare for such unpredictable times? 

Andrew Macintosh, managing director of Andrew Macintosh Furniture, thinks that forecasting busy periods with any degree of accuracy is near impossible, lamenting: “We set our targets every year and monitor sales against them at regular intervals, but there have been so many obstacles put in the way of consumers recently, like Brexit, Covid, general elections, interest rate rises, and the long wait for a budget”.

Instead of looking to monthly trends and expectations, many retailers seem to be taking a broader view. Michael Lloyd recalls: “A long time ago a wise old KBB man once said to me, ‘look at quarters, not weeks and months’. And he was correct – when you look at any quarterly trading, its roughly the same year-on-year.”

Belinda Dangerfield is one retailer who’s adopted a “rolling, quarterly forecasting model”. She says strategies like this align with the business’ marketing activities and events, adding: “Monitoring web traffic, online enquiries, and social media engagement gives us early signals of potential peaks. We then assess how this translates to showroom footfall, booked appointments, and order conversions.”

Audus Kitchens’ John Lindsey also uses a quarterly view, which he says comes with the benefit of “built-in flexibility”. He explains: “Our forecast covers everything from projected sales and key expenditures to potential promotions or product launches.

“We do look at previous years, but with an adaptive approach that leaves room for last-minute adjustments.  For me it’s as simple as saying ‘what did we do last year and what do we think we can achieve next year?’.”

 But still, for all retailers, steady and reliable cash flow is the key to keeping their business afloat, so how can they protect their income in such an unpredictable market?

Dangerfield believes that KBB retailers may actually have an advantage here where other retail sectors perhaps miss out. She notes: “The time between placing a deposit and the actual kitchen installation can span months or even years! So balancing cash flow often involves scheduling installations evenly throughout the year.”

Andrew Macintosh agrees, believing that when all is said and done, month-by-month or quarterly trends don’t “make any difference so long as we maintain above a certain level of sales throughout the year”.

However, aside from spread-out project planning, Audus Kitchens’ John Lindsey believes that longer-term financial planning is also key to help retailers deal with the bumps in the road in these strange times.

He says: “When peaks are unpredictable, we lean heavily on careful cash flow management – keeping reserves during slower months and focusing on financial planning to handle overheads during lulls. A good bookkeeper and accountants are essential with planning!”

Similarly, Julian Stammers knows that “businesses that have been around will have built up cash reserves so they can weather a quiet month or two”. 

However, he acknowledges that the same might not necessarily be true for all retailers, adding: “Some businesses will be concerned, and if they are like those going into partnership with a kitchen supplier for a franchised showroom, they will have to weather a rough time as they will have ongoing costs whether they are busy or quiet.”

Trading patterns

While a lot of retailers pointed out that there’s definitely been a shift in the business peaks and quieter periods, what’s not clear is whether it’s a permanent feature of the market now, or instead just another symptom of a post-Covid world combined with a tumultuous economy. 

   In a sort of Inception-style meta-twist, are there also waxing and waning peaks and troughs to the effects of peaks and troughs?

Lukas Kedden, manager at Qures Bathrooms & Tiles , agrees that there’s been a shift, but notes: “It feels like it’s slowly going back to the ‘normality’ of peaks and troughs from pre-Covid times.

“I hear of a lot of retailers who opened during the Covid ‘gold rush’ of bathroom sales, and were struggling during a quiet Summer as they were used to constant sales throughout the year. This year’s cost of living crisis, inflation, general election and nationwide uncertainty also fuelled this very quiet period.”

And Lukas Kedden isn’t alone in thinking things may be cycling back to normal. Michael Lloyd says: “Looking closely at sales figures from January until the end of August, I would suggest this is the closest to the old normal trading patterns. Without doubt, there’s less footfall and less overall sales, but values are higher and 90% of enquires have converted.”

Regardless of whether the ever-reliant business peaks of yesterday really are gone for good, or are about to make a welcome return, it never hurts for even the most rose-tinted retailers to have safety plans in their back pocket for a rainy day.

“The best advice I can offer is be ready for anything and never let your guard down,” concludes Michael Lloyd. “Long before you think it’s going quiet, do everything possible to boost your social media, market back to your existing data base, and ensure your showroom is stunning.

“Oh, and always be kind to clients, it goes a long way!”