Words: Jayne Barber

Mortgage rate rises, ongoing concerns over cost-of-living, and political issues have dented consumer willingness to plan major elective household refurbishment for two years.  

New build completions have slumped, and the private landlord sector is impacted by legislative changes.  All of this has combined to create two years of decline in new kitchen installations, with 2024 installations calculated by JKMR as more than 18% lower than the 2022 peak.

Yet intrinsic price rises, the fact clients want to upgrade when they do renovate, and a strong high-end of the market, has enabled the overall fitted kitchen products market in 2024 to be almost exactly on par with that of 2022.  So, on that basis, the average spend per project across the market has risen 20% since 2022. Although, inevitably, some operators and sectors have seen clients budgets rise to a greater degree than others.

At time of writing this, JKMR projects that 2025 will see market installation levels remain under 1,050,000 projects, broadly on par with 2024.  

Private development new build levels are expected to start to improve in the second half of the year but it would need an improbable degree of growth for annual completions to get near government targets. Social and private rental project numbers are expected to fall further under budgetary and legislative pressures. 

Owner-occupier refurb, which made up over 70% of all installations in 2024, will most likely see ‘just about managing’ households still concerned over mortgage and utility cost rises, and the implications of global issues on essential item prices.  

Yet it currently looks likely house prices will remain robust, leaving the majority of homeowners in positive equity, with a new kitchen seen as a positive investment.  

This also benefits the trade side, whose kitchen activity has a correlation with householders deciding to extend or remodel their homes, confident that such outlay will be more than recompensed by an ultimately higher value for their home. 

Happy days?

With price rises likely to be needed to cover increased employment costs, and clients still seeking to upgrade, overall market value (cabinetry, tops, integrated MDAs, sinks/taps) at end-client buying price is currently projected to rise 2.5-3%, putting market value close to, or just above, £5.4Bn.   

JKMR believes that while most buyers will still shift specification upward there may be be a slightly more cautious attitude towards financing projects through consumer credit.  

As such it is likely that the mass volume retailers will continue to promote lines priced at the ‘most affordable’ level, including through trade pricing.  

Overall, then, the outlook for 2025 is not a booming market; but the substantial year-on-year volume falls seen over the last two years are not expected to be replicated now.  

With the higher-spending end of the market likely, once again, to be more robust than the mass-volume, lower budget, corner, the studio sector may well see more market share gains.  

However, just how much any supplier or retailer will be able to improve their profit levels (or even make a profit) remains very open to question.