Words: Jayne Barber

The last time the UK kitchen market was in recession period, it took until 2015 before the market returned to 2007 project numbers.

This time, project numbers have declined at an even steeper rate than they did in 2008-2010, and it currently looks unlikely the market will return to anywhere near to 2022 project levels in the next few years. That, unfortunately, is the bad news.

But this is the good news: In the last recession it took six years before market value returned to pre-GFC levels. JKMR calculates 2025 market value will be over 2% higher than that of 2022, and by 2027 it is projected to be more than 10% higher, even though project numbers are still projected to be 15% lower than in 2022.   

The kitchen has become a far more important space to households. They expect a kitchen design to encompass more than a straightforward run of cabinets with oven/hob, and understand a new kitchen is almost certain to be a five figure purchase. Although it will take time for a significant proportion of households to feel financially secure enough to decide to invest in their kitchen and thus boost project numbers, those households who currently do feel able to invest in their kitchen aren’t cutting back.

For the specialist studios, too, the last three years have not been as “recessionary” as for the mass volume players. Project numbers have declined, yet it can be argued that having fewer but far better margin projects is enabling specialists to focus even more on what they do best: Offering a truly personalised service. 

The specialist sector was the only one to see 2023 income higher than that of 2022, and sector value has continued to increase. JKMR currently projects 2025 specialist income (end client buying price for cabinetry/tops/integrated MDAs/sinks & taps) will be 13% higher than that of 2022. 

By contrast, Wren’s income in 2025 is currently projected as 8% lower than that of 2022, despite their move into major development supply.  Howden 2025 income is projected to be higher than 2022 but the increase will be far short of the specialists’ 13% growth level.

JKMR projections show specialist studios having over 40% share of market value in 2025.  Back in 2022, when Wren, Wickes, and Howden were seeing post-Covid accelerating growth, specialist studios had 37.5% share of market value.  So, actually, the specialists have been flourishing in the last three years. Clearly, whatever they have been doing – and being independently minded folk they won’t all have been tackling the market in the same way – they are, as a whole, doing the right thing.