December is always the perfect opportunity to take stock of the year just passed, but more importantly, to look down the line at the year about to kick off.
As has been the case for the last few years, 2025 has been another unpredictable 12 months in the world of KBB retail, with the loss of some major suppliers and distributors, along with several unexpected industry shake-ups.
However, with some of the big national players in the KBB retail market, like Howdens and Wickes, posting consistently positive results across the year – not to mention Magnet returning to profit in the UK for the first time in more than half a decade – it’s now looking more likely than ever that the retail market is finally returning to a healthy position.
But still, with geopolitical issues inevitably set to persist, along with a decidedly less-than-ideal UK economy also taking its toll on consumer spending, it’s no surprise that retailers still feel in the dark about the wider state of the industry.
So, in an attempt to provide a bit of well-needed clarity, we asked a whole host of industry leaders to speak to you directly, offering their own assessments of the market and giving their predictions of how 2026 is likely to play out.
Where are the opportunities for independents? What dangers should we all look out for? What do we have to look forward to? And most importantly, how can retailers set themselves up for success in 2026?
Managing editor of kbbreview, Andrew Davies, kicks off our series of ‘Insights’ that will run throughout December…
Andrew Davies…
Let’s be honest, 2025 didn’t turn out to provide the solution to the market’s malaise so perhaps 2026 is the year we all agree that the solution is ours to find.
As 2024 turned into 2025, the underlying narrative from most business owners or leaders I spoke to was that this was definitely the year that the storm will pass, the green shoots will be seen, the tide will turn and the end of the tunnel will be illuminated.
In other words, this intangible and indefinable thing called ‘the market’ would pick itself up, dust itself down and everything would be fine. Phew.
It hasn’t worked out that way of course.
Twelve months on, as I ask the same questions of 2025 into 2026, it’s clear that ‘the market’ hasn’t really cooperated and solved everyone’s problems – in fact, in many very high profile cases, it decided to murder in plain sight.
There has been one significant change, however. While no one is expecting any significant upturn in fortunes, which is in itself a level of realism missing from this time last year, there has been the return of something that’s been mostly absent in this extended downturn – grit.
Gone is any talk about ‘the market’ returning – or if it is it will be a welcome bonus rather than saviour – and in its place is ambition, determination, steel and good old-fashioned fight.
There has been a clear switch from hatches being battened down while ‘the market’ happens outside to flinging the shutters open and asking it to come and have a go if it thinks it’s hard enough.
This positive mental attitude and a strategy of self-determination will, hopefully, breed the confidence that has been sorely lacking in much of 2024 and 2025. Big brand names with the size and clout to move the market have all sat back and waited for someone else to stick their head above the top of the trench and that never moves anything on.
Before I sound too preachy, I totally understand why this is the case. Scarily, 2026 marks ten years since the Brexit referendum and if you just list even a fraction of what’s happened since then – five Prime Ministers, a global pandemic, Trump, inflation, cost of living crisis, Ukraine, Gaza, A.I, Musk, tariffs, and Oasis – then staying in business at all is frankly a triumph.
But could it possibly be the case that we’ve become so used to the arrival of each usually inconceivable bit of utter madness, that we’re now beginning to just see it as a new normal?
Have we reached a point where we just accept that we’re going to have to simply get on with it and the arrival of killer robot assassins from the future will be met with a tut and a shrug and an add-it-to-the-list resignation?
Either way, if 2026 is going to be the year where businesses start to attack the market with renewed vigour and purpose then that has pros and cons. It’s certainly true that it needs to happen as the market needs stimulating out of the doldrums, so that’s the positive outlook.
The negative is that the market in its entirety is unlikely to see any real growth and that means the only advantage a business can gain will be at the disadvantage of another.
We’re in for a bumpy year where I feel few prisoners will be taken and any business needs to start 2026 prepared to double its efforts on service, efficiency, expertise and brand awareness if it wants to come out on top as these are where the battle will be fought.
There will, I fear, also be more big name casualties. The KBB market is saturated with suppliers and the differential between many of them is not always easy to identify. Those volume businesses that operate on very tight margins are going to suffer most and we’re already seeing that in the sector of the market where margins are at their narrowest – distribution.
For independent retailers, however, I believe they’re actually in the best position. They’re nimble, quick to make decisions and can read the runes of the customer better than anyone. They don’t differentiate on price, but on service, knowledge and relationships and they’re more valuable than ever
There’s an enormous challenge to come but, let’s be honest, it’s a lot more exciting to be in control of your destiny more isn’t it?